Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-4
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perez doubled to left, Thomas scored and Witt Jr. scored.2–5
- 7Stubbs grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Stott scored, Crawford out at second.2–3
- 5Caglianone hit sacrifice fly to center, Collins scored.1–3
- 5Rincones Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Stott scored.1–2
- 1Massey singled to right, Thomas scored.0–2
- 1Thomas doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -136 / KC +113
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- KC +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.2 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +4 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Luinder Avila: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +19 Elo | PHI 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.030th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3025–18 | Road vs home | 19–2627th of 30 |
| 26th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 147027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–50 | 44–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–38 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders | 38–46–5 | 43–44–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–3 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.