Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bohm homered to center (419 feet), Marsh scored.6–10
- 7Triolo doubled to left, Mangum scored and Gonzales scored.6–8
- 5Triolo hit by pitch, O'Hearn scored, Mangum to second, Gonzales to third.4–8
- 5Gonzales singled to center, Valdez scored, O'Hearn to second.3–8
- 4Harper doubled to center, Turner scored and Rincones Jr. scored.2–8
- 3Marsh homered to right (351 feet).2–6
- 3Reynolds singled to left, Griffin scored.2–5
- 3Davis homered to left center (379 feet).1–5
- 2Turner homered to left (372 feet), Rincones Jr. scored and Crawford scored.0–5
- 2Crawford reached on a fielders choice to third; Bohm and Stott scored on third baseman Gonzales throwing error. Crawford advanced to second and Rincones Jr. reached third on the error.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML PIT +119 / PHI -144
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.0%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -129
- PIT +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +19 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +78 Elo | PHI 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 24–2011th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–45 | 37–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 49–34–3 | 37–44–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 11–13 PHI in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.