Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mets- A.J. EwingBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schwarber homered to center (408 feet), Crawford scored.5–4
- 6Benge grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Baty scored, Torrens out at second.3–4
- 6Ewing homered to right center (382 feet), Alvarez scored.3–3
- 5Benge singled to left, Taylor scored, Baty to third.3–1
- 3Marsh singled to right, Bohm scored.3–0
- 3Bohm doubled to left, Schwarber scored.2–0
- 3Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML PHI -156 / NYM +129
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- NYM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Cionel Perez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 19–2325th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 4th of 301531 | Elo rating | 148421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–47 | 36–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–35 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–43–5 | 37–37–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 24–24 NYM in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 48.