Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- Jared YoungBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turner singled to left, Hill scored, Stott to second.2–1
- 4Young singled to right, Bichette scored.1–1
- 1Harper singled to center, Turner scored, Schwarber to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML PHI -156 / NYM +129
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- NYM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −9 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Zac Thornton: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +58 Elo | PHI 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 8th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 6th of 3022–17 | Road vs home | 18–2225th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–45 | 34–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 24–34 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–41–5 | 37–35–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 23–23 NYM in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 46.