Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alan RangelPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mets- A.J. EwingBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bichette hit sacrifice fly to left, Soto scored.2–6
- 7Soto tripled to center, Benge scored.2–5
- 6Ewing singled to center, Lindor scored and Young scored, Vientos to second.2–4
- 6Lindor tripled to right, Soto scored and Bichette scored.2–2
- 3Harper homered to left center (378 feet), Turner scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML PHI +111 / NYM -134
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 47.5%, market 54.7%
- Fair odds
- NYM -121
- PHI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +8 | PHI: Alan Rangel (no track record yet) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +18 Elo | PHI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 18–2326th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 4th of 301534 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–46 | 35–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–35 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–42–5 | 37–36–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 24–23 NYM in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 47.