Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting2-3
- Bubba ChandlerPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner homered to right center (376 feet), Crawford scored.0–8
- 8Crawford singled to center, Stott scored.0–6
- 7Marsh grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Schwarber scored, Harper out at second.0–5
- 7Harper singled to right, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.0–4
- 7Turner doubled to left, Hill scored.0–3
- 2Crawford singled to left, Bohm scored and Realmuto scored, Rincones Jr. to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 67%
- ML PIT +191 / PHI -235
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.7%, market 67.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -204
- PIT +204 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +13 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +61 Elo | PHI 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 23–2011th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 15th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15295th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–44 | 36–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 24–37 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 49–33–3 | 37–43–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 11–12 PHI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.