Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Endy RodriguezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez homered to right center (390 feet), O'Hearn scored and Cook scored.11–7
- 8Realmuto singled to right, Stott scored.8–7
- 8Marsh homered to right center (416 feet).8–6
- 5Callihan grounded into fielder's choice to first, O'Hearn scored on error and Valdez scored on throwing error by shortstop Turner, Rodríguez out at second.8–5
- 5Rodríguez walked, Reynolds scored, Valdez to second, O'Hearn to third.6–5
- 5O'Hearn singled to left, Griffin scored, Reynolds to second.5–5
- 5Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Mangum scored.4–5
- 5Triolo homered to center (419 feet).3–5
- 4Valdez homered to left (411 feet), Reynolds scored.2–5
- 3Harper homered to right (405 feet), Turner scored.0–5
- 3Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to center, Crawford scored.0–3
- 1Marsh homered to left center (389 feet).0–2
- 1Turner homered to left (424 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PIT -107 / PHI -112
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.1%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -102
- PIT +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −14 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 23–1910th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 16th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–44 | 36–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 48–33–3 | 36–43–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–12 PHI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.