Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Gabriel Rincones Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Royals- Nick LoftinBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rincones Jr. doubled to right, Bohm scored.6–1
- 7Turner scored on Erceg wild pitch, Harper to second on wild pitch by Erceg.5–1
- 7Turner scored on Erceg wild pitch, Harper to second on wild pitch by Erceg.5–1
- 6Bohm homered to center (444 feet).4–1
- 4Loftin reached on infield single to third, Thomas scored.3–1
- 4Rincones Jr. homered to right (404 feet).3–0
- 4Realmuto homered to left center (399 feet), Stott scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML PHI -162 / KC +134
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- KC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 4.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +11 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +23 Elo | PHI 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–18 | Road vs home | 19–2527th of 30 |
| 25th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 4th of 301531 | Elo rating | 147327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–50 | 44–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–38 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 31–23 |
| Overs–unders | 38–45–5 | 43–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–3 KC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.