Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Alan RangelPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gonzales homered to left center (387 feet).6–1
- 8Valdez hit sacrifice fly to right, Mangum scored, Lowe to third.5–1
- 8Rodríguez homered to center (395 feet).4–1
- 7Gonzales singled to center, Valdez scored.3–1
- 7Valdez tripled to center, Lowe scored.2–1
- 5Valdez singled to center, Mangum scored, Lowe to third.1–1
- 3Harper doubled to left, Marchán scored, Schwarber to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PIT +113 / PHI -136
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- PIT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.0 – 5.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −13 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Alan Rangel: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +59 Elo | PHI 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 15th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 25–2010th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–46 | 38–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 26–37 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 50–34–3 | 38–44–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 11–14 PHI in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.