Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 14 K
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.4–1
- 7Suárez homered to left (362 feet).3–1
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (408 feet), Crawford scored.3–0
- 3Turner grounded out to shortstop, Hill scored, Crawford to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML PHI -168 / CIN +139
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.4%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -150
- CIN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +6 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–20 | Road vs home | 20–2425th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 5th of 301526 | Elo rating | 148025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–52 | 45–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–40 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders | 39–47–5 | 51–37–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 11–12 CIN in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.