Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bleday homered to center (417 feet), Steer scored.0–4
- 7Stewart hit sacrifice fly to center, De La Cruz scored.0–2
- 5De La Cruz homered to left center (400 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML CHC -121 / CIN +101
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.8%, market 52.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.9 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +48 Elo | CHC 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 9th of 3025–22 | Road vs home | 21–2626th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 4th of 301534 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–52 | 47–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 14–20 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders | 48–40–5 | 52–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 20–23 CIN in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 43.