Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jackson doubled to center, Alonso scored and Henderson scored. Chicago Cubs challenged: call on the field was upheld.2–3
- 8Suzuki doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.2–1
- 6Suzuki homered to left (432 feet).1–1
- 2O'Neill homered to center (398 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML CHC +108 / BAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 49.3%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -118
- CHC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 5.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +4 | CHC: David Peterson: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +5 Elo | CHC 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 8th of 3025–21 | Road vs home | 24–2519th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 4th of 301535 | Elo rating | 148520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–52 | 45–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 23–28 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 48–39–5 | 50–39–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–2 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.