Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Reds- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bregman homered to left (354 feet), Suzuki scored.5–3
- 6Bleday homered to right (379 feet).3–3
- 6Happ doubled to left, Busch scored.3–2
- 6Kelly homered to center (410 feet).2–2
- 5Suzuki singled to center, Amaya scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.1–2
- 4Suárez homered to right center (370 feet).0–2
- 4Lowe homered to right (381 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML CHC -102 / CIN -118
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 44.3%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CIN -107
- CHC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | 0 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +40 Elo | CHC 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3025–23 | Road vs home | 22–2623rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15034th of 30 |
| 4th of 301531 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–53 | 48–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 14–20 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 34–25 |
| Overs–unders | 48–41–5 | 52–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 20–24 CIN in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 44.