Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan JohnsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Roden singled to right, Caratini scored.3–5
- 7Caratini doubled to left, Lewis scored.3–4
- 7Schanuel singled to left, Neto scored.3–3
- 3Soler doubled to left, Neto scored and Trout scored.2–3
- 2Keaschall hit sacrifice fly to center, Caratini scored.0–3
- 2Lewis homered to left center (419 feet), Clemens scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 63%
- ML LAA +157 / MIN -191
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.8%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -169
- LAA +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 5.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +62 Elo | MIN 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–32 | Road vs home | 24–2519th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 29th of 301452 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–49 | 47–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 39–32 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders | 46–48–1 | 53–35–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–12 MIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.