Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Roden singled to center, Lewis scored, Keaschall to second, Jackson to third.5–6
- 7Clemens walked, Kreidler scored, Lee to second, Martin to third.5–5
- 7Lee walked, Keaschall scored, Martin to second, Kreidler to third.5–4
- 7Rocchio hit sacrifice bunt, Kwan scored, Rocchio to first on fielding error by pitcher Rogers, DeLauter to second.5–3
- 7DeLauter singled to right, Watson scored, Kwan to third.4–3
- 4Roden singled to center, Bell scored, Lewis to third.3–3
- 4Keaschall hit sacrifice fly to center, Clemens scored.3–2
- 4Lewis walked, Lee scored, Bell to second, Clemens to third.3–1
- 4Hoskins homered to left (383 feet).3–0
- 4Rocchio homered to left (401 feet), DeLauter scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML CLE +108 / MIN -131
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.7%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -118
- CLE +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −16 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +23 Elo | CLE 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 10th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 23–2317th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 11th of 301506 | Elo rating | 148321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–47 | 47–45 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 31–16 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders | 44–48 | 52–33–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 27–16 MIN in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 43.