Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Guardians- Austin HedgesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas hit sacrifice fly to right, Peters scored.3–1
- 8C. Montgomery homered to right (402 feet).2–1
- 5Hedges homered to center (388 feet).1–1
- 1C. Montgomery doubled to left, Vargas scored on error, C. Montgomery safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Ingle.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML CHW +123 / CLE -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -133
- CHW +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +48 Elo | CLE 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 25th of 3017–28 | Road vs home | 24–2011th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 21st of 301483 | Elo rating | 15119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–42 | 45–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 14–29 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 31–15 |
| Overs–unders | 50–35–2 | 43–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 17–27 CLE in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 44.