Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Justin FoscueBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Foscue doubled to left, Carter scored on fielding error by left fielder Kwan and Cauley scored.6–3
- 7Rocchio scored on Junis wild pitch, DeLauter to second on wild pitch by Junis.4–3
- 7Rocchio scored on Junis wild pitch, DeLauter to second on wild pitch by Junis.4–3
- 7Foscue doubled to left, Lopez scored.4–2
- 7Lopez singled to center, Cauley scored.3–2
- 6Burger singled to center, Carter scored, Jung to third.2–2
- 5DeLauter doubled to right, Hedges scored.1–2
- 5Arias homered to center (429 feet).1–1
- 4Burger grounded out to third, Jung scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML TEX +130 / CLE -157
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.8%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -141
- TEX +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | TEX: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +26 Elo | CLE 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 21–1810th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–46 | 44–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 13–26 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 31–14 |
| Overs–unders | 37–40–7 | 40–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–10 CLE in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.