Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Justin FoscueBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Okamoto homered to left center (378 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.5–4
- 8Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Giménez scored and Springer scored.5–2
- 3Foscue homered to left (389 feet), Burger scored.5–0
- 1Duran singled to right, Nimmo scored, Foscue to second.3–0
- 1Foscue singled to left, Jung scored, Nimmo to third.2–0
- 1Nimmo doubled to right, Langford scored, Jung to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML TEX -105 / TOR -114
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.5%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −6 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +17 Elo | TOR 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 22–2118th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 14th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–46 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 18–26 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 35–39–7 | 40–37–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–9 TOR in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.