Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Joey LoperfidoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting3-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 11Okamoto singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.9–7
- 11Loperfido homered to right (379 feet), Altuve scored and Alvarez scored.9–6
- 9Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Alvarez scored.6–6
- 9Loperfido reached first base on catcher's interference, Altuve to home, Paredes to second, Alvarez to third. Toronto Blue Jays challenged: call on the field was upheld.5–6
- 8Okamoto singled to left, Springer scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Okamoto to second.4–6
- 7Varsho homered to right (395 feet), Okamoto scored.4–4
- 4Urías homered to left (363 feet), Varsho scored.4–2
- 4Trammell homered to right (421 feet).4–0
- 4Smith homered to center (436 feet).3–0
- 4Diaz homered to left (391 feet).2–0
- 1Paredes singled to center, Altuve scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML HOU +109 / TOR -132
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +49 Elo | TOR 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–42nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 22–1812th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 15177th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–43 | 41–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 18–23 |
| Underdog | 26–23 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 42–34–4 | 38–36–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–9 TOR in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 21.