Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kirk hit sacrifice fly to left, Springer scored.2–4
- 7Straw hit sacrifice fly to left, Varsho scored, Okamoto to third.2–3
- 6Altuve singled to right, Alvarez scored, Walker to third.2–2
- 4Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Giménez scored.1–2
- 2Okamoto homered to left center (388 feet).1–1
- 1Paredes singled to left, Peña scored, Alvarez to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML HOU +113 / TOR -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- HOU +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.3 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +15 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +39 Elo | TOR 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–42nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 21–1813th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 15168th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–42 | 40–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 26–22 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 42–33–4 | 38–35–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–8 TOR in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 20.