Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Okamoto homered to center (420 feet), Clement scored.6–5
- 5Straw doubled to left, Lukes scored and Kirk scored.6–3
- 5Schneider hit sacrifice fly to center, Okamoto scored.6–1
- 3Burger homered to left (378 feet), Seager scored.6–0
- 3Langford homered to left center (401 feet), Lopez scored and Pederson scored.4–0
- 1Pederson homered to right (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML TEX +119 / TOR -144
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.2%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -129
- TEX +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −7 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +29 Elo | TOR 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3019–24 | Road vs home | 22–2017th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 14th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15138th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–46 | 41–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 34–39–7 | 39–37–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–9 TOR in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.