Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peña reached on infield single to shortstop, Matthews scored, Alvarez to second.3–1
- 8Loperfido scored on pickoff error by pitcher Hoffman.2–1
- 8Loperfido scored on pickoff error by pitcher Hoffman.2–1
- 1Lukes homered to right (342 feet). Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.1–1
- 1Paredes doubled to center, Peña scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML HOU +119 / TOR -144
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.9%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -129
- HOU +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −6 | HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +48 Elo | TOR 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 16th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 22–1913th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 20th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15157th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–43 | 41–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 18–24 |
| Underdog | 27–23 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 43–34–4 | 39–36–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 13–9 TOR in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 22.