Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robles reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Bazzana. Young scores. Emerson to 3rd. Robles to 2nd.5–6
- 8Hoskins doubled to left, DeLauter scored and Kwan scored. Seattle Mariners challenged: call on the field was upheld.4–6
- 8DeLauter singled to center, Ingle scored and Schneemann scored, Kwan to third.4–4
- 8Schneemann singled to center, Rocchio scored, Ingle to second.4–2
- 6Rodríguez reached on infield single to second, Robles scored.4–1
- 5Bazzana hit sacrifice fly to center, Arias scored.3–1
- 3Naylor scored on error, Arozarena safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Rocchio.3–0
- 3Naylor doubled to right, Rodríguez scored.2–0
- 2Garver singled to right, Raleigh scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML SEA +104 / CLE -126
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +20 Elo | CLE 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 20–1814th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 9th of 301512 | Elo rating | 150911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–49 | 44–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–41 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 31–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–42–4 | 39–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 12–13 CLE in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.