Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Colt EmersonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Kahlil WatsonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rodríguez singled to left, Emerson scored, Arozarena to second.3–1
- 7Crawford reached on infield single to second, Raleigh scored.2–1
- 3Emerson homered to right (361 feet).1–1
- 1Watson doubled to left, Manzardo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML SEA -111 / CLE -108
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 44.7%, market 50.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -101
- CLE +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +6 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +37 Elo | CLE 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 9th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 17th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 19–1716th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 8th of 301511 | Elo rating | 151010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–48 | 43–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 25–40 | 13–24 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 30–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40–4 | 39–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 11–12 CLE in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.