Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Cooper IngleBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arozarena homered to center (427 feet), Rodríguez scored and Canzone scored.3–4
- 5Rocchio doubled to left, Bazzana scored.0–4
- 4Ingle singled to right, Manzardo scored and Watson scored.0–3
- 4Watson doubled to right, Bazzana scored, Manzardo to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -155 / CLE +129
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.5%, market 58.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -139
- CLE +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 3.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +4 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +3 Elo | CLE 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 19–1816th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 9th of 301513 | Elo rating | 150811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–48 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–40 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 30–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–41–4 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 12–12 CLE in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.