Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kelenic scored on Varland wild pitch.3–2
- 9Kelenic scored on Varland wild pitch.3–2
- 8Lukes homered to right (404 feet), Springer scored.2–2
- 6Díaz singled to center, Nimmo scored, Lopez to second, Duran to third.2–0
- 1Pederson homered to right (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML TEX +109 / TOR -131
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.9%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −2 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +34 Elo | TOR 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 22–2319th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Elo rating | 150812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–46 | 41–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 18–28 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 37–39–7 | 42–37–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 13–9 TOR in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.