Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Yohendrick PinangoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Giménez singled to right, Keys scored.7–4
- 6Kirk homered to left (409 feet).7–3
- 6Seager homered to right center (391 feet).7–2
- 5Pinango homered to right center (415 feet), Clement scored.6–2
- 5Díaz doubled to right, Osuna scored and Duran scored.6–0
- 5Osuna singled to center, Burger scored and Nimmo scored, Duran to second.4–0
- 5Burger singled to left, Jung scored, Nimmo to second.2–0
- 1Burger singled to center, Seager scored, Nimmo to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML TEX +168 / TOR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -180
- TEX +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.4 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +17 | TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +71 Elo | TOR 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 17th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 22–2219th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 13th of 301499 | Elo rating | 151110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–46 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 18–27 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 36–39–7 | 41–37–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–9 TOR in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.