Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jung homered to right center (376 feet).4–2
- 7Osuna flied out to left, Duran scored on error.3–2
- 3Pederson homered to center (403 feet), Lopez scored.2–2
- 1Manzardo homered to center (396 feet), DeLauter scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -126 / CLE +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.3%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 3.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 12th of 3024–24 | Road vs home | 21–1912th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 13th of 301505 | Elo rating | 150811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–46 | 44–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 13–27 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 31–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40–7 | 41–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–10 CLE in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.