Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rocchio homered to right (380 feet), Schneemann scored.5–6
- 7Fry homered to left (387 feet).5–4
- 6DeLauter grounded out to first, Arias scored, Bazzana to second, Kwan to third.5–3
- 6Meidroth homered to right (349 feet), B. Montgomery scored.5–2
- 5Teel doubled to right, Antonacci scored and Vargas scored.3–2
- 5Antonacci doubled to left, Peters scored.1–2
- 3Rocchio walked, Bazzana scored, Watson to second, Manzardo to third.0–2
- 3Bazzana doubled to right, Bailey scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CHW -101 / CLE -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.8%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +4 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +34 Elo | CLE 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3017–26 | Road vs home | 22–2012th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 21st of 301484 | Elo rating | 15099th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–42 | 45–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 37–26 | 31–15 |
| Overs–unders | 49–34–2 | 42–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 17–25 CLE in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 42.