Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Elias DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Guardians- David FryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hedges homered to left center (400 feet), Watson scored.4–9
- 8Díaz homered to left center (402 feet).4–7
- 7Hoskins walked, DeLauter scored on Santos wild pitch.3–7
- 7DeLauter singled to right, Kwan scored.3–6
- 6Lopez doubled to left, Osuna scored.3–5
- 6Díaz grounded out to second, Higashioka scored, Osuna to second.2–5
- 3Higashioka walked, Foscue scored, Duran to second, Jung to third. Cleveland Guardians challenged: call on the field was upheld.1–5
- 2Fry homered to right center (380 feet), Hedges scored and Schneemann scored.0–5
- 2Arias scored on Gore wild pitch, Schneemann to second on wild pitch by Gore, Hedges to third on wild pitch by Gore.0–2
- 2Arias scored on Gore wild pitch, Schneemann to second on wild pitch by Gore, Hedges to third on wild pitch by Gore.0–2
- 2Hedges hit sacrifice bunt, Rocchio scored, Arias to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML TEX +104 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.6%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -113
- TEX +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +6 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +25 Elo | CLE 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 11th of 3025–24 | Road vs home | 21–2016th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–46 | 44–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–29 | 13–27 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 31–15 |
| Overs–unders | 38–41–7 | 41–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 13–10 CLE in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.