Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Watson singled to center, Kwan scored, Bazzana to second.3–4
- 7Kwan singled to left, Rocchio scored on error, Hedges to second, Kwan to second, Hedges safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Antonacci.3–3
- 7Hedges reached on infield single to shortstop, Hoskins scored, Rocchio to second.3–2
- 5Vargas homered to left (374 feet), Peters scored and Antonacci scored.3–1
- 3Bazzana singled to center, Arias scored, Hedges to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML CHW +114 / CLE -137
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −4 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +40 Elo | CLE 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3017–27 | Road vs home | 23–2012th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 21st of 301484 | Elo rating | 15109th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–42 | 45–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 14–28 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 31–15 |
| Overs–unders | 50–34–2 | 43–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 17–26 CLE in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 43.