Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Antonacci grounded out to first, B. Montgomery scored, Peters to second, Meidroth to third.7–6
- 5Arias homered to left center (446 feet), DeLauter scored and Manzardo scored.6–6
- 3C. Montgomery homered to right center (390 feet), Benintendi scored.6–3
- 3Benintendi singled to right, Vargas scored.4–3
- 2Peters homered to right center (376 feet).3–3
- 1Schneemann singled to center, Manzardo scored, Schneemann to second, Arias to third.2–3
- 1DeLauter homered to right center (425 feet), Bazzana scored.2–2
- 1Teel homered to left (378 feet), Vargas scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML CHW +122 / CLE -147
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.6%, market 56.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -132
- CHW +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −7 | CHW: Chris Murphy: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +32 Elo | CLE 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 25th of 3018–28 | Road vs home | 24–2112th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 21st of 301485 | Elo rating | 150910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–42 | 45–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 14–30 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 31–15 |
| Overs–unders | 50–36–2 | 43–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 18–27 CLE in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 45.