Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-4
- AJ BlubaughPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Keaschall homered to left center (373 feet).8–3
- 6Allen singled to right, Smith scored, Loperfido to third.7–3
- 6Loperfido singled to left, Matthews scored, Smith to third.7–2
- 5Larnach singled to center, Caratini scored and Keaschall scored.7–1
- 2Clemens homered to right center (399 feet), Keaschall scored and Lee scored.5–1
- 1Paredes grounded into double play, third to second to first, Altuve scored, Alvarez out at second.2–1
- 1Bell homered to center (452 feet), Larnach scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML MIN +130 / HOU -157
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.7%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -141
- MIN +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +5 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +54 Elo | HOU 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 19th of 3019–23 | Road vs home | 21–2221st of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 27th of 301472 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–44 | 43–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–20 | 12–21 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders | 50–30–7 | 46–37–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 13–14 HOU in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 27.