Colorado Rockies at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Lewis singled to center, Fedko scored, Caratini to second.8–9
- 9Buxton singled to left, Martin scored, Kreidler to second.8–8
- 9Goodman homered to left (451 feet), Fulford scored.8–7
- 9McCarthy homered to right center (381 feet), Julien scored.6–7
- 9Julien doubled to center, Carrigg scored.4–7
- 8Rumfield singled to center, McCarthy scored.3–7
- 8Goodman hit sacrifice fly to right, Julien scored, McCarthy to third.2–7
- 8Moniak grounded out to first, Tovar scored, McCarthy to second, Julien to third.1–7
- 5Bell doubled to left, Clemens scored and Buxton scored.0–7
- 5Buxton doubled to left, Larnach scored.0–5
- 2Lee homered to right (348 feet), Lewis scored.0–4
- 1Clemens homered to right (380 feet), Buxton scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML COL +146 / MIN -177
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.6%, market 61.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -157
- COL +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 5.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −8 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +53 Elo | MIN 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3014–27 | Road vs home | 20–2221st of 30 |
| 1st of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 30th of 301410 | Elo rating | 147426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–39 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 41–36 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders | 37–41–3 | 47–29–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–5 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.