Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean SullivanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tovar homered to left (380 feet).5–2
- 6Rafaela singled to left, Eaton scored.5–1
- 6Eaton doubled to left, Seigler scored.4–1
- 5Abreu homered to center (443 feet).3–1
- 2Castro homered to right (435 feet).2–1
- 2Eaton singled to left, Monasterio scored, Wong thrown out at third.2–0
- 1Abreu tripled to center, Eaton scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 60%
- ML BOS -167 / COL +138
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 62.5%, market 59.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +1 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Sean Sullivan: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +89 Elo | BOS 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.130th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 17–2125th of 30 |
| 4th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 11th of 301506 | Elo rating | 140930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–44 | 41–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 40–35 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40–3 | 36–40–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–5 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.