Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Caleb DurbinBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCarthy tripled to left, Rumfield scored, Goodman scored and Carrigg scored.2–3
- 6Durbin singled to left, Contreras scored, Duran to second.2–0
- 6Contreras doubled to right, Abreu scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -137 / COL +114
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 6.2 – 5.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −5 | BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +79 Elo | BOS 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 16–2128th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 140830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–43 | 40–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–28 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 39–35 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39–3 | 36–39–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–4 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.