Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Cole CarriggBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carrigg doubled to right, Castro scored, Rumfield to third.6–8
- 8Freeman hit sacrifice bunt to first, Moniak scored, Castro to second.6–7
- 7Johnston singled to center, Carrigg scored, McCarthy to third.6–6
- 7McCarthy singled to right, Goodman scored, Carrigg to third.6–5
- 7Carrigg singled to left, Freeman scored, Goodman to second.6–4
- 5Seigler doubled to left, Mayer scored.6–3
- 4Freeman singled to center, Karros scored, Castro to third.5–3
- 4Rafaela singled to left, Wong scored, Eaton to second.5–2
- 4Monasterio homered to left (365 feet).4–2
- 3Carrigg hit sacrifice fly, Freeman scored, Goodman out at second, Rumfield to third.3–2
- 3Rumfield doubled to right, Castro scored, Freeman to third.3–1
- 2Wong homered to left (380 feet), Seigler scored.3–0
- 1Contreras doubled to center, Rafaela scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -164 / COL +136
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 64.8%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -147
- COL +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −19 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +106 Elo | BOS 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.130th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 17–2227th of 30 |
| 5th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 140830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–44 | 41–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–29 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 40–36 |
| Overs–unders | 33–41–3 | 36–41–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–5 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.