Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes doubled to right, Peña scored and Vázquez scored.8–6
- 8Peña singled to center, Diaz scored on error, Peña to second, Vázquez to second, Vázquez safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Outman.6–6
- 7Walker singled to left, Paredes scored, Altuve to second.5–6
- 5Lee homered to left center (369 feet).4–6
- 4Torkelson doubled to left, Rogers scored, Greene to third.4–5
- 4Peña singled to center, Diaz scored, Vázquez to second.4–4
- 3Carpenter homered to right center (390 feet), McGonigle scored, Keith scored and Torkelson scored.3–4
- 3Altuve grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Peña scored, Paredes out at second.3–0
- 2Smith homered to left (380 feet), Walker scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 56%
- ML HOU +117 / DET -141
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- DET: Elo 52.7%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -127
- HOU +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −10 | HOU: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +19 Elo | DET 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 23–1910th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 149217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–44 | 37–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 29–24 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–37–4 | 34–44–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–13 DET in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.