Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Taylor TrammellBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dingler homered to center (432 feet).2–1
- 9Paredes hit sacrifice fly to center, Peña scored.2–0
- 6Trammell homered to right (422 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML HOU +100 / DET -121
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- DET: Elo 54.8%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- HOU +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +16 | HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +33 Elo | DET 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 22–1810th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–43 | 36–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 15–29 |
| Underdog | 28–23 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–35–4 | 34–42–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 11–12 DET in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.