New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vierling doubled to left, Dingler scored.4–3
- 6Wells doubled to left, Caballero scored.4–2
- 6Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (403 feet), Goldschmidt scored.3–2
- 4Caballero grounded out to third, Chisholm Jr. scored, Jones to second.1–2
- 3Dingler singled to left, Malgeri scored.0–2
- 3McKinstry scored on Rodón wild pitch, Malgeri to second on wild pitch by Rodón.0–1
- 3McKinstry scored on Rodón wild pitch, Malgeri to second on wild pitch by Rodón.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -118 / DET -102
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -107
- DET +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 3.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +39 Elo | NYY 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–42nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–16 | Road vs home | 22–169th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301556 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–36 | 36–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–33 | 15–27 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–38–5 | 34–40–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–9 DET in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.