New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Amed RosarioBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rosario homered to right center (373 feet), Wells scored.3–5
- 5Greene homered to right center (422 feet).1–5
- 4McGonigle doubled to left, Lee scored on error, McGonigle safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Caballero.1–4
- 3Keith singled to center, Greene scored, Torkelson to second.1–3
- 3Torkelson singled to center, Carpenter scored, Greene to third.1–2
- 3McGonigle grounded out to second, McKinstry scored.1–1
- 2Sánchez doubled to left, Caballero scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -125 / DET +104
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.5%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -113
- DET +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −10 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +67 Elo | NYY 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3024–15 | Road vs home | 21–1610th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301558 | Elo rating | 149119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–35 | 35–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–32 | 15–27 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–37–5 | 34–39–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–8 DET in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.