New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-5
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Domínguez homered to left (382 feet), Rice scored.4–2
- 4Malgeri hit sacrifice fly to right, Torkelson scored, Lee to third.2–2
- 3Goldschmidt homered to left center (427 feet).2–1
- 2McKinstry singled to center, Torkelson scored, Lee to second.1–1
- 1Goldschmidt homered to left (372 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML NYY +113 / DET -136
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- DET: Elo 46.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- NYY +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.3 – 3.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +14 | NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +25 Elo | NYY 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 22–1710th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301557 | Elo rating | 149217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–36 | 36–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–33 | 15–28 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–39–5 | 34–41–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 12–9 DET in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.