Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-3
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 7 K
Tigers- James OutmanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Dingler singled to center, McGonigle scored.0–8
- 4Outman homered to right (407 feet), McKinstry scored and Vierling scored.0–7
- 4Keith homered to right (341 feet).0–4
- 3Carpenter homered to right (412 feet), McGonigle scored.0–3
- 3Dingler struck out swinging, Outman scored on throwing error by catcher Diaz, McGonigle stole third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML HOU -108 / DET -112
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- DET: Elo 51.5%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- HOU +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −3 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +10 Elo | DET 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 22–1911th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 17th of 301493 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–43 | 36–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 15–30 |
| Underdog | 29–23 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–36–4 | 34–43–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–12 DET in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.