Colorado Rockies at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-5, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Mike ParedesPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Larnach doubled to center, Keaschall scored, Lee scored and Gray scored.8–5
- 8Karros homered to left (384 feet), Carrigg scored.8–2
- 7Goodman homered to left center (401 feet), McCarthy scored and Tovar scored.6–2
- 6Caratini hit sacrifice fly to left, Bell scored.3–2
- 5Moniak grounded out to second, McCarthy scored.3–1
- 3Goodman homered to center (428 feet).2–1
- 1Clemens singled to center, Larnach scored, Buxton to second.1–1
- 1Goodman homered to left (428 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML COL +114 / MIN -137
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.5 – 5.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +19 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Mike Paredes: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +106 Elo | MIN 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 3014–28 | Road vs home | 21–2220th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 30th of 301409 | Elo rating | 147527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–39 | 42–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 9–18 |
| Underdog | 42–36 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders | 38–41–3 | 48–29–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–6 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.