Colorado Rockies at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kreidler homered to center (421 feet).2–3
- 6Johnston singled to right, Rumfield scored.2–2
- 4Clemens homered to right (399 feet).1–2
- 2Lee reached on infield single to third, Lewis scored on throwing error by third baseman Karros.1–1
- 1Rumfield reached on infield single to third, Castro scored, Goodman to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML COL +143 / MIN -173
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.5%, market 60.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -154
- COL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 5.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −25 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 1.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +53 Elo | MIN 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3015–28 | Road vs home | 21–2321st of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 30th of 301412 | Elo rating | 147228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–39 | 42–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 43–36 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41–3 | 49–29–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–6 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.