Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Josh BellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Astros- Cam SmithBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith homered to left center (429 feet).5–4
- 9Trammell homered to right (412 feet), Paredes scored.5–3
- 7Clemens grounded out to shortstop, Keaschall scored, Lee to second.5–1
- 6Bell homered to right center (413 feet), Lee scored.4–1
- 5Smith homered to left (408 feet).2–1
- 4Caratini homered to center (426 feet).2–0
- 4Lewis homered to left (375 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 56%
- ML MIN +119 / HOU -143
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +37 Elo | HOU 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 20–2122nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 26th of 301473 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–43 | 42–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–20 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 33–23 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders | 49–30–6 | 45–37–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 12–13 HOU in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.