Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Torkelson homered to right center (379 feet), Greene scored.7–5
- 10Walker homered to left (394 feet), Alvarez scored and Paredes scored.7–3
- 10Paredes singled to right, Peña scored, Alvarez to second.4–3
- 8Paredes homered to left (402 feet).3–3
- 7Delgado homered to right (409 feet), Meyers scored.2–3
- 5McGonigle scored on error, Greene safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Delgado.0–3
- 2McKinstry homered to right center (386 feet), Carpenter scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -114 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.9%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −12 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +13 Elo | HOU 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3021–23 | Road vs home | 23–2012th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149914th of 30 |
| 17th of 301491 | Elo rating | 149118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–44 | 37–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 30–24 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 44–37–4 | 35–44–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 13–13 DET in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 26.