Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan KreidlerBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bell doubled to center, Clemens scored.4–6
- 4Alvarez homered to right center (395 feet), Diaz scored, Delgado scored and Altuve scored.3–6
- 4Altuve walked, Trammell scored, Delgado to second, Diaz to third. Houston Astros challenged: call on the field was overturned.3–2
- 4Diaz singled to left, Smith scored, Trammell to second.3–1
- 1Kreidler singled to left, Clemens scored and Lewis scored on error, Kreidler safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Alvarez, Caratini safe at third on error.3–0
- 1Caratini hit by pitch, Larnach scored, Lewis to second, Clemens to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 50%
- ML MIN -110 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +22 Elo | HOU 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 20–2222nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 27th of 301474 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–43 | 42–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–20 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 34–23 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders | 49–30–7 | 45–37–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 13–13 HOU in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 26.