Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Josh BellBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Max SchuemannBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brendan BeckPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bell homered to right center (376 feet), Clemens scored.11–4
- 8Clemens singled to right, Martin scored.9–4
- 8Buxton hit sacrifice fly to left, Keaschall scored.8–4
- 7Bell homered to left (399 feet).7–4
- 5Bellinger doubled to right, Grisham scored, Rice to third.6–4
- 5Schuemann homered to left center (418 feet), McMahon scored.6–3
- 4Domínguez homered to right center (357 feet).6–1
- 4Larnach homered to right (360 feet).6–0
- 2Jackson homered to left center (410 feet).5–0
- 2Keaschall homered to right center (368 feet).4–0
- 1Clemens homered to right center (393 feet), Buxton scored.3–0
- 1Buxton doubled to center, Larnach scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML MIN +124 / NYY -149
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.1%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -134
- MIN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.9 – 5.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −6 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Brendan Beck (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +78 Elo | NYY 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 23–189th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 26th of 301474 | Elo rating | 15423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–45 | 45–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–20 | 34–38 |
| Underdog | 35–25 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 51–31–7 | 38–44–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–14 NYY in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.