Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Domínguez reached on infield single to first, Rosario scored.9–3
- 6Goldschmidt grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Schuemann scored, Sánchez out at second.9–2
- 6Outman homered to right center (368 feet), Torkelson scored and McKinstry scored.9–1
- 3Greene homered to right center (404 feet), Dingler scored.6–1
- 1Rice homered to right center (395 feet).4–1
- 1Torkelson homered to left (405 feet), Keith scored.4–0
- 1Greene homered to right (424 feet).2–0
- 1Carpenter homered to center (410 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML DET +100 / NYY -121
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.6%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -110
- DET +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.4 – 3.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +14 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +75 Elo | NYY 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 30th of 3013–28 | Road vs home | 22–169th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–47 | 44–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–32 | 33–36 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 37–44–4 | 37–42–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 10–13 NYY in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.